Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 140.822479 168.906779 203.233641 248.990167 309.496706 3.884260e+02 5.020702e+02
2025-03-09 103.522637 134.468639 176.769546 240.997930 340.289048 4.960969e+02 7.784022e+02
2025-03-16 82.408224 112.745884 157.435188 231.813739 361.086830 5.966595e+02 1.121079e+03
2025-03-23 74.736418 107.291243 158.765192 252.571702 436.797621 8.336888e+02 1.975313e+03
2025-03-30 66.039112 98.104662 151.470900 255.583909 480.730233 1.039463e+03 3.087679e+03
2025-04-06 60.351404 92.491727 148.576779 265.336134 543.226178 1.344500e+03 5.270582e+03
2025-04-13 54.055446 84.713205 140.082300 261.066358 571.174513 1.582726e+03 8.078668e+03
2025-04-20 51.860233 83.665547 143.765091 283.954767 682.744403 2.248661e+03 1.850027e+04
2025-04-27 49.534682 81.962419 145.738666 303.620139 799.548883 3.158688e+03 4.923810e+04
2025-05-04 47.070016 79.599577 145.844144 318.787671 914.640496 4.358456e+03 1.668727e+05
2025-05-11 44.442863 76.539746 143.857608 327.871790 1016.821402 5.834594e+03 8.748215e+05
2025-05-18 41.740377 72.975826 140.114477 330.945672 1099.576597 7.545619e+03 1.558769e+07
2025-05-25 38.446275 67.981661 132.656657 322.088910 1130.520115 9.045486e+03 NaN
2025-06-01 35.563431 63.547280 125.895660 313.768967 1161.766470 1.091059e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 32.816957 59.112158 118.483836 301.379313 1164.532142 1.253508e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 32.393229 59.588441 123.190642 331.100273 1442.294083 2.390604e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 30.840303 57.413351 120.826764 335.453849 1573.340019 3.556846e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 29.804703 56.277188 120.992287 349.487446 1800.473893 6.443872e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 28.119705 53.495874 116.333945 343.340407 1864.614502 9.004694e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 27.882361 54.024982 120.839848 376.446289 2347.917557 3.081021e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 27.439876 54.019782 123.861520 405.166038 2886.335718 1.704243e+06 NaN
2025-07-27 26.803275 53.477801 125.238246 427.485405 3442.852991 3.680404e+07 NaN
2025-08-03 25.971354 52.372605 124.750372 440.921436 3946.570085 NaN NaN